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Monitoring for marine tipping points-Guidance
This report provides strategies for monitoring marine ecosystem changes and detecting critical tipping points.
Introduction to tipping points and monitoring
The concept of 'tipping points' (TP) in marine ecosystems refers to the critical threshold where an ecosystem undergoes a drastic change, potentially resulting in the loss of marine resources or ecosystem services. These dramatic shifts are usually due to a combination of human activities that push the ecosystem beyond its resilience limits. Detecting early warning signs (EWS) that a tipping point is nearing can be extremely challenging due to the resilience of natural systems and the natural variability they exhibit. Effective environmental monitoring is therefore crucial for identifying early signs and understanding when a tipping point has actually occurred. This involves tracking natural small-scale fluctuations and longer-term changes within an ecosystem and understanding ecological interactions and responses to stressors.
Analysing environmental indicators and data
The design of monitoring programmes must be tailored to differentiate between natural cycles and significant changes. EWS can manifest in various forms, such as slowing recovery rates within the ecosystem or 'flickering' between different states. A robust time series analysis, often spanning 15 years or more with frequent sampling, is required to account for natural cyclic patterns like El Niño/El Niña. This analysis should include at least 50 data points to improve the detection of a TP. Expert ecological knowledge, the inclusion of covariables that may influence change, and comparison with reference time series can be used to reduce the number of datapoints needed.
Recommendations and implementation challenges
To ensure the effective detection of EWS and TPs, a comprehensive time series of at least 15 years, preferably with within-year sampling, is recommended. The report uses the length, frequency of sampling, and number of data points in the time series to identify various levels of confidence for detecting TPs. Addressing the limitations of current New Zealand marine monitoring programmes, the report recommends increased sampling frequency and integrating expert ecological knowledge to improve TP detection. This knowledge is vital for New Zealand and other regions where data may be scarce or collection intervals may be lengthy.
Key insights
Environmental monitoring is key for detecting system changes
Environmental monitoring entails scrutinising subtle and pronounced shifts in marine ecosystems, which signal imminent tipping points. These points can have profound and often irreversible impacts. Hence, identifying early warning signs becomes a pivotal task in marine conservation efforts. By analysing recovery rates and variances in ecosystems, researchers can pinpoint where intervention may be necessary to preserve biodiversity and ecological services.
Time series data and expert knowledge improve detection of variation
Extensive data collection over significant timespans is critical for making valid predictions about marine ecosystems. In areas like New Zealand with limited sampling opportunities, leveraging expert knowledge can compensate for data gaps. This amalgamation of empirical data and expertise contributes to a more precise and dependable framework, which is integral to the anticipation and management of ecological tipping points.
Monitoring frequency and length drive effectiveness
Successful detection of the approach of sudden changes relies heavily on ecological knowledge, and the length of time and the frequency of monitoring activities. Due to resource limitations, programmes may struggle to maintain within-year sampling across sites. Having at least some sites nationally that have within-year sampling can significantly increase the usefulness of monitoring at less frequently monitored sites. Such strategic adjustments are vital for the early identification of ecological tipping points.
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© Copyright 2024 - Tohorā
© Copyright 2024 - Tohorā
Knowledge guiding change.
